Donald Trump has regularly confounded scholars and pundits, but could a four-decade-old paradigm predict his future?
In the first year and a half of his presidency, Donald J. Trump has defied conventional wisdom, created chaos within the Washington establishment, and redefined the American political landscape. In our hyper-partisan environment, many media outlets have chosen to consistently criticize or defend his actions. Meanwhile, political scientists have largely focused their research on studying the political and social attitudes of Trump voters. Therefore, despite the gallons of ink and millions of keystrokes used to write stories about the administration, very little analysis of Trump, the president, has been conducted. Fortunately, there is an existing theoretical framework in place for such analysis.
In 1972, political scientist James David Barber’s The Presidential Character was published to modest acclaim. Barber had developed a two-dimensional typology to categorize the personalities of presidents, which he in turn used to analyze their successes and failures. However, there was skepticism to his approach because prior to the 1970s most studies in political science focused on institutions, rules, and democratic norms. The prevailing belief was that institutions impacted the behavior of individuals and brought them in line with the norms of the office. Very little work had tried to analyze whether the personalities or behaviors of elected officials impacted institutions. Fortunately for Barber’s research, his work was published as the cognitive revolution swept through the social sciences and, perhaps more importantly, his conclusions about the sitting president, Richard Nixon, were prescient.
Barber’s dual axis typology is simple, but ingenious. The horizontal axis measures how active or passive a president is during office. Items such as the frequency of cabinet meetings, amount of legislation introduced, typical working hours, and several other factors are used to determine a president’s placement on the continuum. The vertical axis measures how positively or negatively a president feels about the office and chooses to use its power. Correctly placing presidents on the vertical access required diligent research of interviews conducted during their time in office and their formal biographies. An easier way to conceptualize the framework is the horizontal axis is political, and the vertical axis is psychological. The result is four typologies: active positive, active negative, passive positive, and passive negative.
Passive positive: Passive positive presidents enjoy the office and are often well-liked by even their adversaries. Barber believed them to be agreeable and optimistic. However, they tend to defer to other branches of government and are not forceful in pushing their agenda. William Howard Taft and Warren G. Harding are classic examples. Barber later placed Ronald Reagan in this category.
Passive negative: Passive negative presidents have a strong sense of duty and view the office as an obligation rather than an opportunity. They do not seek out power and have a general disdain for political negotiations. Historically, Dwight D. Eisenhower and Calvin Coolidge fall into this category.
Active positive: Active positive presidents love being president. They view the office as a vehicle to do good and they are driven to succeed. They are legislatively active, work long hours, and are eternally optimistic. Franklin D. Roosevelt, John F. Kennedy, and later, Bill Clinton are textbook examples of active positive presidents. Barber believed active positive traits produced the best presidents.
Active negative: Active negative presidents are hard-working but tend to be aggressive and derive little enjoyment from the office. They often use their power to settle scores with political opponents and view the attainment of power as the most important part of their time in office. Barber placed two modern presidents, Lyndon B. Johnson and Richard Nixon, in the active negative category. He believed active negative traits produced the worst presidents with a penchant for self-destruction due to their obsessive nature.
Barber’s categorization of Nixon, the then-sitting president, as an active negative and his belief that Nixon’s presidency would ultimately self-destruct is what turned Barber from an up-and-coming political scientist into a star. At the time Barber’s research was published, Nixon was coming off a commanding Electoral College victory over George McGovern, yet within two years he was forced to resign from office rather than face impeachment. People began to view Barber’s classification as predictive and he was afforded unparalleled interview access to subsequent sitting presidents in order to continue his research. As groundbreaking and exciting as Barber’s research was, and still is, it is not without critique.
Barber’s normative judgment of active positive and active negative presidents raises a red flag, particularly when viewed through the lens of his partisanship. Barber, a Democrat, placed nearly all modern Democratic presidents in the active positive category and never placed one modern Republican in that category. His placement of Democratic presidents in active categories is likely due to the behavioral impact of political ideology. Liberal presidents desire an active national government and have a vast legislative agenda while conservative presidents desire to either maintain the status quo or reduce the size of national government. Identifying liberal presidents as more active is accurate, but believing their activity makes them better for serving office is problematic. President Trump’s typology will be determined by his actions, not his partisanship or ideology.
Active vs. Passive: President Trump is a walking contradiction. In one way, he is extremely active. He constantly communicates with his followers on social media and weighs in on everything from the subscription numbers of news publications critical of him to professional athletes using symbolic speech to bring about social change.
He also uses executive orders to bypass the legislative process in order to hastily put into motion his legislative agenda, even if those orders end up being deliberated by the court system for months.
On the other hand, there are reports he works about seven hours a day, enjoys vacationing at his resort over the weekend, and prefers not to read briefings longer than one page. Additionally, he defers much of his legislative agenda to members of his cabinet, which is a typical attribute of passive presidents. Fifteen years ago, before the explosion of social media and executive orders, he would been easier to characterize. However, in the current political and media landscape where tweeting is viewed as nearly the same as giving a speech and the appearance of action is as important as taking action, President Trump manages to project one image while living another.
Verdict: Active (barely)
Positive vs. Negative: President Trump is much easier to analyze along this dimension. He is routinely frustrated by the rigors of the office, uses his platform to openly attack his political opponents, which includes leading chants to lock up his 2016 electoral opponent, and declines to participate in even the more relaxing parts of his job, such as throwing out the first pitch at a baseball game or attending the White House Correspondents Dinner. The only thing he seems to enjoy about the office is the attention he receives, exaggerating the margin by which he won, and telling his supporters how great things are going to be once he dismantles much of legislation previous presidents have put in place.
Verdict: Negative (by a mile)
There are some concerning character traits with active negative presidents, but there are bright spots as well. According to Barber, the United States was governed by active negative presidents, Johnson and Nixon, from 1963 to 1974. Those 11 years brought us the heart of the Vietnam War, assassinations of political and social leaders, and race riots throughout the country. However, they also brought us The Great Society, racial integration, Title IX, the Environmental Protection Agency, and a better relationship with China. Those accomplishments were made possible, in part, by the single-minded focus and combative political style active negative presidents bring to the office. Ultimately, those traits, when not appropriately harnessed, lead to political annihilation. Johnson’s single-minded approach to Vietnam torpedoed his presidency and led to his decision not to seek reelection. Meanwhile, Nixon’s disregard for democratic institutions and the rule of law led to his resignation.
Perhaps President Trump can channel his single-minded focus to improve trade agreements with the European Union and China or to secure a comprehensive border agreement with the Mexican government. However, depending on the outcome of the 2018 midterm elections or the results of the Mueller investigation it is possible he will meet a fate similar to Johnson and Nixon. Either way, the duration of Trump’s presidency will be must-see reality television.
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