Get the latest on all of the results of the House of Representatives, the Senate, and key gubernatorial races across the country.
Update at 10:35 PM CST: According to CNN, the Democrats have officially claimed control of the House of Representatives. There are several more races to be decided that will determine the size of the Democratic majority, but now that we know the majorities of both chambers of Congress for the next two years we can begin the process of understanding the implications for the country and for President Trump.
1. Get ready for subpoenas. Being in the majority in the House of Representative means that Democrats have seized control of all investigative power in Congress. Remember all those investigations led by former Republican congressman Trey Gowdy about Hillary, her emails, and Benghazi? Well, the shoe is about to be on the other foot. Even supporters of President Trump often acknowledge that he plays fast and loose with the rules (e.g. The Constitution) and having Democrats investigating his various financial improprieties, connection with Russian election meddling, and the full scope of the Mueller Investigation means that the next two years are going to be very litigious. However, Democrats have to be careful not to overplay their hand. If all they are able to accomplish is court room theatrics without providing a reasonable policy alternative to President Trump and Republicans, it will set them up for failure in 2020.
2. Get ready for gridlock. Republicans have had unified control of government for the last two years, which allowed them to pass substantial tax and spending bills along with other major pieces of conservative legislation. That all stops. The GOP-led Senate will have to come to some sort of agreement with the Democratic-led House in order to get any bill on the desk of President Trump. Even once that happens, Trump will likely scoff at the watered down compromise and refuse to sign it. Hence, gridlock. Democrats will dig in their heels over spending, immigration reform, and healthcare. Without any legislation to sign, Trump will likely get restless and resort back to using his old friend--executive orders--to get things done. Similar to subpoena power, Democrats have to be careful not to overplay their hand. Yes, their victories in the House are a sign that the public wants to see something new in Washington, but it is hardly a mandate. They have to carefully put forth policy items that are reasonable and try to meet Republican leadership more than halfway in order to effectively frame the GOP as the ones who are obstructionist and disconnected.
3. Get ready for 2020. With a divided Congress reducing the speed to legislation to that of a disinterested sloth, there is little reason to even worry about the act of governing and instead it's time to go all-in on the clown show that will inevitably be the 2020 election. Democratic senators, and presidential aspirants, Cory Booker and Kamala Harris have already visited Iowa in an effort to establish a presence in the earliest primary state. Former Vice-President Joe Biden said that he would make a decision about running in 2020 sometime after January of next year and even Hillary Clinton made news when she insinuated that she'd like another crack at running for office, which was immediately followed by a collective groan from the Democratic National Committee. And that list doesn't even account for progressive darlings Senator Elizabeth Warren and Representative Beto O'Rourke, the latter of which may have actually benefited from losing his Senate race against Ted Cruz because it will free up his schedule to visit Iowa and New Hampshire for the next two years. Meanwhile, all of this plays into President Trump's hands. Trump, no matter what you think of him, is much more comfortable on the campaign trail than in the Oval Office. He'll start a barnstorming tour to whip up support, demonize liberals, and come up with bad nicknames for his would-be opponents. His supporters will yuck it up because that's what they do. All in all, 2020 will likely make us yearn for a simpler time, like say, the 2018 midterms.
Update at 9:23 PM CST: It was the best of times, it was the worst of times. Dickens's opening line from A Tale of Two Cities could just as easily apply to the night Democrats are currently having. They appear to be well on their way to recapturing the House of Representatives as they need only to pick up nine more seats and are currently leading in 26 races against GOP incumbents. On the other hand, they've been handed some embarrassing defeats in statewide races, most noticeably in Florida, Indiana, and North Dakota senate races, where Republicans have been able to unseat relatively moderate Democratic incumbents. Why the disconnect?
The likely culprit is the increasingly sharp urban/rural divide in which urban and heavily-populated suburban districts have become solidly Democrat while rural areas have become overwhelmingly Republican. The best example of this is Texas and Minnesota. Currently in Texas there are several Democratic challengers leading Republican incumbents in House races in the El Paso, Dallas, and Houston suburbs. For years, those were solidly Republican districts, but Texas's booming economy has brought millions of people from outside of the area to the various metroplexes and an increasing percentage of Latinx voters have fundamentally changed the political equation. Contrarily, in Minnesota, white working-class rural counties that were once the backbone of the Clinton Coalition in 1992 and 1996 have become solidly red and are part of the new Trump Coalition due to immigration and cultural issues. How does this translate to the House and the Senate? Look at the maps. You'll notice Democrats winning urban and suburban seats in nearly every state and flipping several districts, but those same state maps will also show a vast sea of red in between urban centers, which allows for the GOP to run up the score. The issues that Democrats struggle to overcome in statewide races is that they have not been effective at making inroads in rural districts where Republicans are able to win counties at a nearly 75-25 split. Individually, those counties might not seem like a big deal, but collectively they overwhelm the few densely-populated urban counties and districts which Democrats are able to win.
Update at 8:32 PM CST: Death, taxes, and a Florida squeaker on election night. With over 99% of the votes counted Republican Ron DeSantis (no relation) appears to be on the verge of defeating Democrat Andrew Gillum in the Florida gubernatorial race. Meanwhile, Republican Rick Scott appears to ready to pull out a close victory over incumbent Democratic Senator Bill Nelson. Both races are separated by less than 100,000 votes with largely Democratic-heavy districts remaining to be counted, but will it be enough for Gillum and Nelson to overcome the early GOP advantage? Likely not. If you have been following the early voting trends in Florida these results should not be too surprising. University of Florida political science professor Daniel Smith does an outstanding job of tracking early voting patterns in the state and released the below graphic yesterday after early voting data was released.
Two things are immediately apparent. First, early voting has skyrocketed over that of four years ago and, second, Republicans doubled-up Democrats in terms of votes cast in early voting. Democrats had to have hoped non-affiliated voters would break hard in their direction, but even a 65-35 split in favor of Democrat would likely not have made a difference.
The potential DeSantis victory in Florida has to be particular demoralizing for Democrats since DeSantis doubled-down on the Trump agenda and drew charges of race-baiting throughout the contest. His impending victory serves as yet another reminder to Democrats that Trumpian antics are effective at mobilizing the GOP base in critical swing states.
Update at 7:26 PM CST: With polls just starting to close on the east coast, there is a lot of speculation over races that have less than 10% of the votes reported. In the meantime, there are some interesting exit poll numbers to analyze. First, a note of caution. Exit polls are conducted on the national level, which means it is difficult to extrapolate their results to the state and local races. Nevertheless, they can still provide some insight into the mood and attitude of voters in the country.
In what is sure to qualify as breaking news, it turns out Donald Trump's immigration policy is divisive. According to CNN's exit polls roughly half the country believes his stance on immigration is too tough while the other half believe it is about right or too weak. Trump spent the better part of the last two weeks hammering immigration by attacking the caravan of immigrants from Honduras who are headed to the United States. His ads on the issue were so inflammatory that even Fox News refused to air them. At first blush, this does not look great for Democrats as half of the voters are supporting Trump's position or something more extreme on this issue, however, we also do not know where that supporting is coming from geographically. In all likelihood, support for Trump on this issue is coming from highly conservative areas of the country. What is ultimately going to be more telling is how these issues played in Florida, Missouri, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Texas, Arizona, and other states with key swing seats. Ultimately though, it's an important reminder for Democrats that no matter how unhinged the president may seem to them on an issue, roughly half of the country will walk in lock step with his position.
In more breaking news, Nancy Pelosi is less popular than Donald Trump. Less than 30% of voters have a favorable view of Pelosi, the woman who is likely to become the next Speaker of the House if Democrats regain control of the House of Representatives tonight. Pelosi's unpopularity has been the gift that has kept on giving to Republicans for the better part of the last decade. Republicans frequently highlight her progressively liberal positions in national ads and during this election cycle Texas Senator Ted Cruz ran a series of ads telling voters that his challenger, Beto O'Rourke, was more extreme than Pelosi. While some Democrats will scream that this is a case of misogyny and the public not being able to handle a strong female leader, privately, many Democratic lawmakers have become frustrated with Pelosi's leadership and over 60 of them voted against her leadership during the Democratic Congressional Caucus in 2017. All of that said, it should not surprise people that a congresswoman from arguably the most liberal district in the country would come across as disconnected from the ideals of the public.
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