Copycat Coaching?

Are NFL teams emulating the blueprint of the Eagles and Rams in order to develop their own franchise quarterback?

The most important position in professional sports is quarterback in the National Football League. General managers, coaches, and scouts collectively spend hundreds of thousands of hours evaluating college quarterbacks to determine which one can bring a franchise a Lombardi Trophy. They focus on minutia such as eye location, exit velocity, and blitz recognition all while conducting extensive background checks and interviews to determine which 21-year-old has the best combination of physical and mental skills to withstand the pressures of being a franchise quarterback. However, the emergence of Carson Wentz and Jared Goff during the 2017 season indicates teams should spend just as much time evaluating their own coaching staff and locker room when forecasting the future success of a young quarterback.

The Philadelphia Eagles traded up twice in the weeks prior to the 2016 draft to select quarterback Carson Wentz from North Dakota State. Wentz possessed all of the physical tools you could want in an NFL quarterback, but there were questions regarding the caliber of his college competition and limited starting experience. However, the Eagles hoped any shortcomings Wentz might have would be corrected by the coaching staff and the veteran quarterbacks on the roster. Wentz’s new head coach, Doug Pederson, had played quarterback in the NFL for 12 seasons and, despite being a head coaching neophyte, had learned as an assistant in Philadelphia and Kansas City under noted quarterback-whisperer Andy Reid. The Eagles named another long-time NFL quarterback, Frank Reich, their offensive coordinator and hired John DiFillipo, a former college quarterback, as their quarterback coach. The Eagles also invested heavily in the quarterback position aside from Wentz. Incumbent starting quarterback Sam Bradford was a smart, albeit oft-injured, veteran and back-up Chase Daniel had honed his craft behind future Hall of Fame quarterback Drew Brees in New Orleans. In summary, Wentz’s three primary offensive coaches had played the quarterback position and he could learn from two well-established quarterbacks. With a quarterback-friendly coaching staff and solid veteran presence, Wentz went on to play all 16 games his rookie year with poise and command of the offense. In year two, all three coaches remained. However, Bradford had been traded prior to the start of the season to make way for Wentz’s ascendance and Daniel was released at the end of the season. In their place the Eagles brought in Nick Foles, a former Pro Bowl quarterback, to provide continued veteran presence. As a result, Wentz made the leap from promising rookie to MVP-caliber quarterback until a week 14 ACL injury against the Rams finished his 2017 season. Speaking of the Rams…

With the number one overall selection in the 2016 NFL Draft, the Los Angeles Rams selected University of California-Berkeley quarterback Jared Goff. Goff was widely viewed as the best quarterback available and came out of a quarterback-friendly spread offense at Cal. However, in juxtaposition to the Eagles, the Rams gave Goff very little coaching or veteran support. His head coach, Jeff Fischer, was a defensive-minded coach who had no track record of developing a franchise quarterback. The Rams’ offensive coordinator, Rob Boras, was a first-year NFL coordinator who had only ever coached tight ends prior to taking over the reins of the Rams’ offense. Rounding out the offensive staff was quarterback coach Chris Weinke, who had played quarterback for six seasons in the NFL, but had never coached prior to joining the Rams coaching staff. Goff was greeted in the quarterback room by relative unknowns Case Keenum and Sean Mannion. Not surprisingly, Goff struggled. He failed to dress for the first portion of the season and when he finally played, he looked lost. Fortunately for Goff, Fischer was fired after week 14 and the rest of the staff was fired at the end of the season. Sean McVay, a 30-year-old offensive wunderkind who had groomed Kirk Cousins the previous three seasons in Washington, replaced Fischer as head coach and immediately went to work building a quarterback-friendly staff. Matt LeFleur, a former college quarterback who had success coaching Matt Ryan in Atlanta, was hired as offensive coordinator while Greg Olson, another former college quarterback with 20 years of quarterback coaching experience, was brought in as quarterback coach. Finally, journeyman quarterback Dan Orlovsky signed with the team in free agency to provide a veteran presence for Goff. In 2017 Goff went from presumed draft bust to up-and-coming star quarterback at the helm of the top-scoring offense in the NFL.

The NFL is a copycat league and the career trajectories of Wentz and Goff should serve as a valuable blueprint for teams who are investing early-round draft capital in the quarterback position. The following serves as a breakdown for each of the five teams that selected quarterbacks in the first round of the 2018 NFL Draft.

Cleveland Browns

Draft position: #1 overall

Quarterback selected: Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma

Head coach: Hue Jackson

Offensive coordinator: Todd Haley

Quarterback coach: Ken Zampese

Quarterbacks on roster: Tyrod Taylor and Drew Stanton

Overview: Questioning Cleveland’s ability to evaluate quarterbacks is an annual tradition. During the 2016 and 2017 NFL Drafts, Cleveland was in a position to draft Carson Wentz or Deshaun Watson, respectively. They traded out of both selections. In both cases the Browns misevaluated, prioritizing collecting future assets over selecting a dynamic young quarterback. In 2018, under new personnel leadership, Cleveland selected Mayfield, hoping he can finally provide the franchise stability at the quarterback position. Mayfield, who was a highly productive college quarterback even at 6’ tall, is plagued by questions about his maturity and whether his height will prevent him from becoming an effective NFL quarterback. If those concerns sound familiar it is because they are eerily reminiscent of a previous Browns first round quarterback selection—Johnny Manziel. Leaving aside evaluations of Mayfield, he walks into a relatively good situation. Hue Jackson, who played quarterback collegiately at Pacific University, is an offensive-minded head coach who served as a quarterback coach with the Ravens and helped develop a young Joe Flacco. Todd Haley is an established offensive coordinator with limited success developing young quarterbacks, as his greatest successes have come while coaching established veteran quarterbacks Ben Roethlisberger and Kurt Warner. Quarterbacks coach Ken Zampese brings 20 years of experience and helped develop both Carson Palmer and Andy Dalton. It should be noted, however, that both Palmer and Dalton had prototypical NFL attributes that Mayfield lacks. Meanwhile, in the locker room, Mayfield will not be forced into early action as Tyrod Taylor will serve as the starting quarterback with Drew Stanton backing him up.

Best-case comparison: Drew Brees

Worst-case comparison: Johnny Manziel

Most likely comparison: Rex Grossman

New York Jets

Draft position: #3 overall

Quarterback selected: Sam Darnold, USC

Head coach: Todd Bowles

Offensive coordinator: Jeremy Bates

Quarterback coach: Jeremy Bates

Quarterbacks on roster: Josh McCown and Teddy Bridgewater

Overview: If the Browns are synonymous with dysfunction, the Jets cannot be far behind. The franchise has not had a stable quarterback since Chad Pennington, an average to below-average starting quarterback for most of his career. In Darnold, the Jets selected a quarterback with ideal size and arm strength. Additionally, Darnold should be able to withstand the New York City media scrutiny as he spent three years under the spotlight in Los Angeles leading the glamorous USC college football program. However, a number of factors work against him on the coaching staff. Todd Bowles, while universally respected around the league, is a defensive-minded head coach who has never groomed a young quarterback. Jeremy Bates, a former quarterback at the University of Tennessee, serves as both the Jets offensive coordinator and quarterback coach. While Darnold will only have one voice to listen to during his first NFL training camp, Bates’s track record is less than inspiring. He had some success coaching Jay Cutler in Denver and again in Chicago, but was not involved in Cutler’s initial development. Additionally, Bates, after being fired in his one season as offensive coordinator of the Bears, was out of coaching for four years from 2013 to 2016. If there is a saving grace to Darnold’s situation it is the Jets’ quarterback room. McCown and Bridgewater served as savvy veteran quarterbacks whom Darnold could learn from throughout training camp. However, prior to the start of the year, Bridgewater was traded to the Saints in exchange for a third-round pick and Darnold was named starter. McCown's continued presence should still help guide the rookie through the rocky shoals of his first season in the Big Apple.

Best-case comparison: Andrew Luck

Worst-case comparison: Matt Leinart

Most likely comparison: Carson Palmer

Buffalo Bills

Draft position: #7 overall

Quarterback selected: Josh Allen, Wyoming

Head coach: Sean McDermott

Offensive coordinator: Brian Daboll

Quarterback coach: David Culley

Quarterbacks on roster: AJ McCarron and Nathan Peterman

Overview: Last season the Bills decided to bench starting quarterback Tyrod Taylor in favor of rookie Nathan Peterman. In the first half of his first game, Peterman promptly threw five interceptions. Taylor was reinserted after halftime, but the initial decision to bench him made it obvious the Bills would once again be in the market for a quarterback. Their selection of Allen is more about projection than production. Allen has all of the physical tools scouts and coaches look for in an NFL franchise quarterback, but his play at Wyoming was uninspiring. Equally uninspiring is the coaching staff surrounding Allen during his rookie campaign in Buffalo. His head coach, Sean McDermott, has coached defense his entire career, but was on the staff of the Eagles and Panthers when they respectively drafted Donovan McNabb and Cam Newton. Bills fans have to hope that McDermott, despite not being involved in coaching either quarterback, picked up some valuable lessons along the way. Offensive coordinator Brian Daboll has no experience developing young quarterbacks and his offenses have regularly finished in the bottom third of the league. Additionally, Daboll has struggled to stay with one team for more than a season, which is concerning because many young quarterbacks’ careers have been hamstrung by coaching instability. Finally, quarterbacks coach David Colley served as an offensive assistant with Andy Reid in both Philadelphia and Kansas City. However, during his 20-year tenure in the NFL he has NEVER coached quarterbacks. The news does not get considerably better in the quarterback room. McCarron was signed to serve as a bridge quarterback after a rather innocuous career as Andy Dalton's back-up in Cincinnati. However, late in the preseason, the Bills traded him to the Raiders in exchange for a fifth-round pick and then proceeded to name Peterman, he of five-interceptions-in-one-half fame, the starter for the first regular season game. It is difficult to envision a scenario where Allen is successful in his first NFL season.

Best-case comparison: Tony Romo

Worst-case comparison: Giovanni Carmazzi

Most likely comparison: Joe Flacco without the Super Bowl run

Arizona Cardinals

Draft position: #10 overall

Quarterback selected: Josh Rosen, UCLA

Head coach: Steve Wilks

Offensive coordinator: Mike McCoy

Quarterback coach: Byron Leftwich

Quarterbacks on roster: Mike Glennon and Sam Bradford

Overview: Josh “Chosen” Rosen was hailed as the savior of the UCLA football program. While orchestrating memorable victories, Rosen’s on-field production fell short of his hype due largely to injuries. However, when healthy, Rosen is an outstanding prospect with an accurate, strong arm who has the swagger to lead a team at a young age. In Arizona, Rosen will be under the watchful eye of first-year head coach Steve Wilks, a former defensive coordinator who, like McDermott, is only distantly connected to the development of Cam Newton during his time on the staff in Carolina. However, behind Wilks is a promising combination of coaches. Former head coach, long-time offensive coordinator, and former college quarterback Mike McCoy was brought in to run the offense. McCoy found success with veteran quarterbacks Phillip Rivers and Peyton Manning, and during his time with the Broncos, McCoy helped turn journeyman Kyle Orton into a productive NFL quarterback, which is something of an accomplishment. McCoy has a quarterback-friendly offense and while his experience coaching rookie quarterbacks is sparse, his own background with the position should provide fans of the Cardinals some hope. Byron Leftwich, who played quarterback for nine years after being selected in the first round of the 2003 NFL Draft, is the quarterback coach. Leftwich has only coached two seasons, but his experience as a former franchise quarterback should provide Rosen a trusted voice and confidant. In the locker room, Rosen will have two well-established veteran quarterback role models in Mike Glennon and Sam Bradford. In many ways, Bradford should serve as a cautionary tale for Rosen. Bradford is blessed with tremendous physical abilities and a great mind for the position, but has never been able to stay healthy. Bradford, for his part, served as a mentor with the Eagles after they selected Wentz. Meanwhile, Glennon provides another solid, though less naturally talented, veteran with previous starting experience to nurture Rosen.

Best-case comparison: Aaron Rodgers

Worst-case comparison: Sam Bradford

Most likely comparison: Matt Ryan

Baltimore Ravens

Draft position: #32 overall

Quarterback selected: Lamar Jackson, Louisville

Head coach: John Harbaugh

Offensive coordinator: Marty Mornhenwig

Quarterback coach: James Urban

Quarterbacks on roster: Joe Flacco and Robert Griffin III

Overview: No quarterback was more divisive in the leadup to the 2018 NFL Draft than Lamar Jackson. The former Heisman Trophy winner out of Louisville had put up video game numbers during his time in college, but some scouts believed the wide receiver position was his path to NFL stardom. Jackson, who is tall, but slight in stature, does not have ideal accuracy, but is elusive and incredibly fast, having clocked a 4.34 40-yard dash during a 2017 workout at Louisville. The question will be whether those skills translate to the professional level. The track record for NFL dual-threat quarterbacks is checkered; for every Randall Cunningham or Michael Vick there is a Robert Griffin III or Tim Tebow. That said, the coaches and veteran quarterbacks on the roster in Baltimore seem uniquely qualified to handle Jackson’s transition to the NFL. John Harbaugh made the unusual jump from special teams coordinator to head coach, but has overseen the development and growth of Joe Flacco from little known FCS quarterback from the University of Delaware to Super Bowl champion. Leading the offense is long-time West Coast Offense acolyte Marty Mornhenwig. Mornhenwig’s 30-year coaching career has included coaching several mobile quarterbacks, including Brett Favre, Steve Young, Donovan McNabb, and the aforementioned Vick. If any coach would understand how to utilize Jackson’s unique skill set, it is Mornhenwig. There is only one problem. Mornhenwig appears to have forgotten how to call an effective offensive game. The 2017 Ravens passing offense was ranked toward the bottom of the league in every statistical category. Even worse, the offense lacked creativity and closely resembled the offenses Mornhenwig ran twenty years ago. Is this a reflection of Flacco’s declining skills or is it indicative of an offensive coach whose play-calling did not evolve? The answer should reveal itself quickly once Jackson takes the field. The Ravens quarterback coach is James Urban, who served as quarterback coach under Mornhenwig in Philadelphia and coached both McNabb and Vick. The fact Jackson will have access to two coaches who mentored two of the most successful dual-threat quarterbacks of the last 20 years is a tremendous asset. Additionally, in the quarterback room, Jackson will be able to learn from a mirror image of himself in Robert Griffin III. Blessed with world class speed and a strong arm, Griffin III took the NFL by storm his rookie year until injuries and coaching conflicts derailed his once-promising career. Griffin III and the former Super Bowl champion Flacco should serve as effective mentors for Jackson as he grows into the position of NFL quarterback.

Best-case comparison: Michael Vick

Worst-case comparison: Robert Griffin III

Most likely comparison: Randall Cunningham

The most surprising part of the analysis is that despite the obvious gains made by Wentz and Goff under quarterback-friendly coaching, few organizations have sought to replicate their teams' approach. Perhaps the development of Josh Rosen in Arizona, surrounded by a respected and offensively-minded staff, will provide NFL owners and general managers the necessary sample size to begin copying the success of the Eagles and Rams.